Brazil is already the third largest agricultural exporter in the world. But climate change can pose a real challenge to the country's productive expansion and generate a contraction in foreign sales by 2050.

The data comes from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which on Monday (17) presented its annual report on the production of commodities. In the survey, Brazil ended the year 2016 with a share of 5.7% of the global market, below only the United States with 11%, and Europe with 41%.

At the beginning of the century, Brazil was surpassed by Canada and Australia, accounting for only 3.2% of world exports and competing with China at 3%. According to the FAO, the added value of agriculture per worker also doubled between 2000 and 2015. At the beginning of the century, it was $ 4,500, reaching $ 11,100 in 2015.

The expansion was not limited to Brazil. According to the entity led by Brazil's José Graziano da Silva, emerging countries already represented 20.1% of the global agricultural market in 2015, compared to only 9.4% in 2000. In addition to Brazil and China, Indonesia and India were the main expansion. Of the top ten exporters today, four are developing economies.

Meanwhile, the market share dominated by the US, European Union, Australia and Canada was reduced by 10 percentage points.

If Brazil gained space among exporters, it disappeared from the list of the top 20 food importers. In 2000, Brazil was the 13th largest importer, with 0.9% of the world market. In 2016, the list of top 20 placed no longer brings the Brazilian market.

The world market, meanwhile, has tripled. Agricultural trade, which moved US $ 570 billion in 2000, registered a flow of US $ 1.6 trillion in 2016. China's economic expansion and demand for biofuels were the main factors behind this growth.

Climate change may affect production

But if the expansion was clear in the first 15 years of the century, the scenarios until 2050 for Brazil will depend on the impact of climate change on the planet. According to FAO, the world will have to double its agricultural output in the next 30 years.

But the impact of climate change can pose real challenges for Brazilian production, which could even suffer a fall. "Climate change will affect global agriculture unevenly, improving production conditions in some locations, but affecting others and creating" winners "and" losers, "the FAO report said.

Countries in low latitudes would be the ones that would suffer the most. Even regions with temperate climates could see increased agricultural production, given the rise in temperature.

In the case of Brazil, the forecast is that, if nothing is done in the global market, its exports would be negatively affected and there would even be a slight drop in the volume sold. The same would occur with the rest of South America and African countries. Europe, the United States and Canada would have strong performances.

Brazilian exports to Africa and India would increase. But there would also be increased imports from North America and Europe. Brazilian sales to Europe and China - its two main markets - could be reduced by more than US $ 1 billion each.

The FAO fear is that climate change will deepen the disparity between rich and emerging countries, as agricultural production could be affected. "We need to ensure that the evolution and expansion of agricultural trade work to eliminate hunger and malnutrition," said José Graziano da Silva.

For him, international trade has the potential to stabilize markets and reallocate food from regions with surpluses to those with deficits. If climate change were accompanied, by 2050, by the opening of markets, Brazil would be the country that would see one of the largest expansions of agricultural trade.

Font: https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/estadao-conteudo/2018/...